Abstract
The southern pine beetle (SPB) is a serious pest of pine forests from Central America to the eastern United States, with a recent range expansion into the northeastern United States. Efforts to detect and monitor SPB activity began in 1960 as part of an overall integrated pest management system to limit its impact to southern pine forests. The ubiquity of SPB’s pine hosts in the southern United States, in the form of plantations and natural mixed stands, along with the regular occurrence of SPB outbreaks over a vast region, makes SPB a leading driver of overall forest health across this region. We review the past and current methodology for collecting SPB-related pine mortality and outbreak data using aerial and ground survey techniques and remote sensing via satellite imagery. We show how historical and ongoing measurements of SPB abundance, from pheromone-baited traps and aerial surveys, are used to forecast near-term probabilities of outbreaks with a statistical model (actualized through a public URL) that captures the natural tendency of SPB populations to be very high or very low. Insect forecasts can also be combined with maps of the host distributions to generate predictions of short-term regional risks and longer-term tree mortality forecasts via the US Forest Service’ National Insect and Disease Risk Map (NIDRM). Because the measurements of insect abundance and impact outcomes have become part of continuing forest management operations, statistical models can continue to be improved and there is self-reinforcing feedback between models and management. Improved understanding and monitoring of prominent insect pests that impact abundant tree species is a pathway to managing forest health more broadly.
Keywords
southern pine beetle; host; hazard; risk; model; pheromone trap; survey; forest health indicator
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Asaro, C. S., Nowak, J. T., Aoki, C., Ayres, M. P., Monahan, W. B., Krist, F. J., Jr., Norman, S. P., Meeker, J. R., Torbett, M., & Elledge, A. (2026). New Approaches to Tracking Southern Pine Health: Forecasting Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks Using Pheromone-Baited Traps, Detection Surveys and a Hazard Rating Model. Forests, 17(6), 679. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17060679